Динаміка людського розвитку України на тлі глобальних кліматичних змін
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Дата
2021
Назва журналу
Номер ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
Сумський державний педагогічний університет імені А. С. Макаренка, Сумський відділ Українського географічного товариства
Анотація
У статті аналізується динаміка людського розвитку у розрізі адміністративних областей України упродовж 2004-2019 рр. Визначені основні просторо-часові особливості розподілу значень індексу людського розвитку та його компонент. За допомогою кластерного аналізу визначені області із однотипним розподілом значень ІЛР. На підставі визначених особливостей ідентифіковано найвразливіші регіони за соціально-економічним та фізикогеографічним районуванням Інтерпретовані кліматичні зміни для регіонів з різним рівнем людського розвитку та його динаміки. Визначено, що до найнестабільніших регіонів відносно до динаміки ІЛР та кліматичної мінливості належать області у межах Українських Карпат та південностепової підзони. На підставі кліматичних прогнозів глобальних і регіональних моделей ідентифіковано можливі наслідки глобальних кліматичних змін на соціальну і економічну складову розвитку українського суспільства.
Global climate change is a guiding factor for the further development of the country and most economic sectors. The climate change assessment of impacts on the economic sphere, including agriculture and health, that directly or indirectly affect human development indicators is prerequisite to timely adaptation and finding alternative ways to address them. Though a greater adaptability in recent years is characteristic of Ukraine, according to IPCC reports, natural hazards and climate change can affect the economy of the country and the regions. According to the results of the study, The HDI dynamics is shaped by socio-economic and indirect influence of natural factors both that determine the environment for the human development. The impact of socio-economic and political factors can be traced in the HDI decrease after the occupation of Crimea and ATO in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as well as changes in the components of HDI, including education enrollment (in 2014 in Donetsk oblast − almost 82%, and in 2015 − only 38%, in Luhansk oblast it changed from 82% to 28%), GRP per person and life expectancy. The results of spatio-temporal analysis of HDI values indicate the absence of significant regional features. Alongside, the lowest indicators and trends to lower values are found to be characteristic of the regions of the Ukrainian Carpathians; in the steppe zone, lower indicators are typical for the southern steppe subzone, in particular for Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts; the highest values (mostly more than 0.700) are observed in the forest-steppe region. Accordingly, the effects of climate change will primarily affect the human development of these regions. First, in the regions of the Ukrainian Carpathians, given the frequency and significant variability of extreme natural events of hydrothermal genesis, most sectors of the region's economy, as well as health care, will be vulnerable. Second, the increase of average air temperature in the southern regions of Ukraine, identified as the most vulnerable, will contribute to more droughts, which may lead to lower yields and, consequently, the share of agriculture in GDP and the need for reorientation and change of sown areas. Third, urban geosystems, given the overpopulation and associated risks of food and water availability, and higher air temperatures due to the urban heat island effect, are also vulnerable, even in the mixed forests and forest-steppe regions with relatively stable and high HDI values. Climate change scenarios point to divergent changes in climate indicators in the near future until 2030 and the next 20 years in the regions of Ukraine. Accordingly, such changes in sustainable development planning should be addressed in regional and even local contexts, given the peculiarities of the HDI dynamics, its components and variability of meso- and local-climatic characteristics of regions and communities
Global climate change is a guiding factor for the further development of the country and most economic sectors. The climate change assessment of impacts on the economic sphere, including agriculture and health, that directly or indirectly affect human development indicators is prerequisite to timely adaptation and finding alternative ways to address them. Though a greater adaptability in recent years is characteristic of Ukraine, according to IPCC reports, natural hazards and climate change can affect the economy of the country and the regions. According to the results of the study, The HDI dynamics is shaped by socio-economic and indirect influence of natural factors both that determine the environment for the human development. The impact of socio-economic and political factors can be traced in the HDI decrease after the occupation of Crimea and ATO in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as well as changes in the components of HDI, including education enrollment (in 2014 in Donetsk oblast − almost 82%, and in 2015 − only 38%, in Luhansk oblast it changed from 82% to 28%), GRP per person and life expectancy. The results of spatio-temporal analysis of HDI values indicate the absence of significant regional features. Alongside, the lowest indicators and trends to lower values are found to be characteristic of the regions of the Ukrainian Carpathians; in the steppe zone, lower indicators are typical for the southern steppe subzone, in particular for Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts; the highest values (mostly more than 0.700) are observed in the forest-steppe region. Accordingly, the effects of climate change will primarily affect the human development of these regions. First, in the regions of the Ukrainian Carpathians, given the frequency and significant variability of extreme natural events of hydrothermal genesis, most sectors of the region's economy, as well as health care, will be vulnerable. Second, the increase of average air temperature in the southern regions of Ukraine, identified as the most vulnerable, will contribute to more droughts, which may lead to lower yields and, consequently, the share of agriculture in GDP and the need for reorientation and change of sown areas. Third, urban geosystems, given the overpopulation and associated risks of food and water availability, and higher air temperatures due to the urban heat island effect, are also vulnerable, even in the mixed forests and forest-steppe regions with relatively stable and high HDI values. Climate change scenarios point to divergent changes in climate indicators in the near future until 2030 and the next 20 years in the regions of Ukraine. Accordingly, such changes in sustainable development planning should be addressed in regional and even local contexts, given the peculiarities of the HDI dynamics, its components and variability of meso- and local-climatic characteristics of regions and communities
Опис
Ключові слова
індекс людського розвитку, human development index, соціально-економічна вразливість, social and economic vulnerability, глобальні кліматичні зміни, global climate change, кліматичні прогнози, climate prognoses, Україна, Ukraine
Бібліографічний опис
Холявчук, Д. І. Динаміка людського розвитку України на тлі глобальних кліматичних змін [Текст] / Д. І. Холявчук, Д. І. Шкаєва // Наукові записки Сумського державного педагогічного університету імені А. С. Макаренка. Географічні науки : науковий журнал / МОН України, Сумський державний педагогічний університет імені А. С. Макаренка, Українське географічне товариство, Сумський відділ ; [редкол.: Б. М. Нешатаєв, М. О. Барановський, Т. В. Імангулова та ін.]. – Суми, 2021. – Т. 2, вип. 2. – С. 124–142. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4782633.